Oscar Predictions!

A fine doorstop. 

And here are, just days away from the 2009 Academy Awards! Can’t you feel the excitement? So here are my PED-free predictions of a few of the major categories (no, I’m not going to overbore you with my take on Best Sound Mixing–oh, all right, if you want, I’ll give it to “Wanted” in an upset over “The Dark Knight). Place your bets at your own risk.

BEST PICTURE

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* “Milk” (Focus Features)
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight)

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: Well, the buzz around “Slumdog” is hard to ignore, so right now I have to go with the chalk, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “Shakespeare in Love” kind of upset, maybe by “The Reader.” You know, one of those, “Uhhh…what?” winners.

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: Oh, “Slumdog” was my favorite. Though I wouldn’t be unhappy if “Milk” won.

BEST ACTOR

* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: Rourke–Hollywood loves a comeback story.

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: Rourke–I love a comeback story. And for god’s sake, the man’s dog just died. Though in a perfect world, Jenkins would get some kind of “If you hang around long enough…” award.

BEST ACTRESS* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: It seems like Winslet is the favorite in one of those “You’ve been nominated a lot and it was only through awful luck that you haven’t won before. But we think you’re slammin’, even if we don’t care for your movie, so here, have an Oscar” situations. Though I guess you always have to be a little scared when Streep’s around. If Winslet and Hathaway split some votes, she could sneak in. And I’d give Leo the same award as Jenkins.

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: I’ve always been a Winslet fan, so I’m happy with her. I don’t feel strongly about any of the others.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: Oh, there’s not even a question. Ledger gets it both for quality and sentiment.

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: I agree–his performance was the best part of the movie. Though I wish this were another year–I’d love to see Robert Downey Jr. win in a blow for comedy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: The buzz around Cruz is strong, again in one of those “we liked you in a bunch of other movies, too” award-giving situations. Not to mention that she blew the pallid Scarlett Johansson off the screen.

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: I’m fine with Cruz, though it would be kind of fun for Tomei to have an “I told you I deserve this award” moment. Plus she’s a theater girl, so that always makes me a little partial.

BEST DIRECTOR

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: Word is for Danny Boyle in a big night for “Slumdog.”

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: Yes, I think Boyle should get it—-other than Benjamin Button, the other movies are kind of small, while Boyle managed an epic. With Button, I think people want to give credit to the tech, not the director.  

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

* “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN: Everything says “Wall*E” is the favorite…except for “Kung Fu Panda’s” big upset at the Annie Awards…

WHAT I THINK SHOULD WIN: and I’d love to see that happen again.

What else do I want to predict about the Oscars? I predict/hope that Hugh Jackman will be a charming host, just like when he did the Tonys. I predict that despite the producers promise that this year will be different, it really won’t–too many clip compilations as usual (”What is costume design? Without it, these last 80 Oscar winners would have looked like this!”). I predict that “The Dark Knight” will win less of the tech awards its nominated for than expected, thus causing more grumbling about bias towards box office hit action movies. I predict that the best song medley will be awful. I predict that some young stars who are called on to present an award will stumble through the copy and embarrass themselves (I know, that’s too easy). Best speech will go to Rourke or Boyle, worst to Eric Roth if he wins best adapted screenplay.

Prop bet of the night: Will Kate Winslet swear or not? (I say yes!)

2nd Prop bet of the night: Length of show over/under 191 minutes (I say over!)

Enjoy.